Hintertux opened today, Saas-Fee runs again from tomorrow, Stubai wants to start on 9 October, Kitzsteinhorn and Titlis on the 10th. Kaunertal has cancelled its date, Sölden names none, and Zermatt stopped summer skiing at the end of July. At the same time, weather apps are showing ten to twenty centimetres of fresh snow on the glaciers for 8 October.
So when will the ski resorts really open? We ran the numbers, using all 51 variants of the European weather model up to 14 October and 31 variants of the American one to the end of the month, for thirteen glacier ski areas, all at the same altitude of 3,000 metres.
In short
- The first week of October stays too warm, then it flips. For the week from 10 October, 26 of 31 runs come out colder than the 1991 to 2020 average.
- The first cold front arrives on 8 October. In just over half the runs it snows at 3,000 metres that day.
- Fresh snow stays scarce. By 14 October, 6 to 27 centimetres depending on the resort, in the middle run.
- Stubai and Kitzsteinhorn: doable, but on snow that is already there or is being made.
- Titlis on 10 October: unlikely. None of the 51 runs brings 50 centimetres by then.
- Zermatt: summer skiing stays shut; according to the lift company, the winter season starts on 1 November. That is realistic.
All of this is probability, not promise. Whether a resort opens is the lift company’s decision, and it knows things no weather model contains, such as how much snow sat in its depots over the summer.
What will October be like?
First, the direction for the whole month. Only the American ensemble is useful for that, because it is the only freely available model that runs beyond four weeks. We compared weekly mean temperatures at 3,000 metres with the average for the same calendar days in 1991 to 2020, at Titlis, Sölden and Zermatt.
Show the figures by location
| Week | Titlis | Sölden | Zermatt |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 to 9 October | +1.6 °C, 2 of 31 colder | +1.8 °C, 1 of 31 | +0.3 °C, 11 of 31 |
| 10 to 16 October | −3.1 °C, 26 of 31 | −3.0 °C, 25 of 31 | −2.7 °C, 26 of 31 |
| 17 to 23 October | −1.8 °C, 21 of 31 | −1.3 °C, 21 of 31 | −2.4 °C, 23 of 31 |
| 24 to 31 October | −1.7 °C, 21 of 31 | −0.8 °C, 18 of 31 | −0.9 °C, 21 of 31 |
Deviation in the middle run from the 1991 to 2020 average for the same calendar days, altitude 3,000 m.
The first week is too warm, by 1.6 degrees on the Titlis and 1.8 in Sölden. Then it turns: from 10 October, 26 of 31 runs come out colder than normal, on average by about three degrees. For the second half of the month a majority stays cold, but it shrinks and the deviation gets smaller. Nothing more can be said seriously about late October today.
Why the app shows 20 centimetres and we show 13
For 8 October, weather apps and portals are currently showing ten to twenty centimetres on the glaciers. That is not wrong, but it is a single model run. The main run that most apps use gives the Titlis about 20 centimetres by 10 October, and Sölden about 27.
Alongside it, the European model calculates 51 variants with slightly altered starting values. At the Titlis, only 12 of them reach 20 centimetres or more by 10 October. The middle run sits at 13 centimetres. So the app is not showing the most likely outcome but one of the snowier possibilities. Tomorrow it may show something quite different.
Show the figures as a table
| Entry | fresh snow of 1 cm or more | cold enough to make snow |
|---|---|---|
| 3 Oct | 0 % | 77 % |
| 4 Oct | 4 % | 88 % |
| 5 Oct | 12 % | 77 % |
| 6 Oct | 0 % | 88 % |
| 7 Oct | 17 % | 81 % |
| 8 Oct | 54 % | 83 % |
| 9 Oct | 34 % | 87 % |
| 10 Oct | 25 % | 89 % |
| 11 Oct | 28 % | 87 % |
| 12 Oct | 42 % | 85 % |
| 13 Oct | 42 % | 87 % |
| 14 Oct | 25 % | 89 % |
8 October is the only day on which more than half the runs bring snow, 54 percent. A second, weaker chance follows on 12 and 13 October. Before and in between it mostly stays dry.
Enough cold, not enough snow
This is the most important finding of the calculation, and it differs from a week ago. It gets cold enough to make snow everywhere. In every one of the 51 runs there are snowmaking hours before every announced date, in the middle run between 67 (Titlis, up to 10 October) and 179 (Sölden and Mölltal, up to 14 October). At 3,000 metres October nights are cold, even when the days are not.
What is missing is snow from above:
Show the figures as a table
| Resort | driest tenth | middle run | wettest tenth | runs with 20 cm or more |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Titlis | 10 cm | 27 cm | 66 cm | 33 of 51 |
| Mölltal | 3 cm | 16 cm | 57 cm | 23 of 51 |
| Pitztal | 3 cm | 15 cm | 39 cm | 18 of 51 |
| Hintertux | 4 cm | 14 cm | 47 cm | 21 of 51 |
| Kitzsteinhorn | 2 cm | 14 cm | 57 cm | 22 of 51 |
| Sölden, Stubai | 2 cm | 12 cm | 31 cm | 14 of 51 |
| Saas-Fee | 2 cm | 8 cm | 93 cm | 15 of 51 |
| Zermatt, Cervinia | 1 cm | 7 cm | 62 cm | 13 of 51 |
| Diavolezza | 1 cm | 7 cm | 30 cm | 11 of 51 |
| Kaunertal, Val Senales | 1 cm | 6 cm | 25 cm | 11 of 51 |
The bars are long, the middle values small. That means some runs bring a proper blast of winter, most bring a few centimetres. For anyone who can make their own snow or kept it in a depot over the summer, the weather is no longer an obstacle. Anyone waiting for natural snow keeps waiting.
Resort by resort: our assessment
| Resort | announced | fresh snow before the date | our assessment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Val Senales | training operation since 19 September, free skiing on request | 6 cm by 14 October | running, mainly for training |
| Pitztal | open since 26 September | 15 cm by 14 October | running |
| Hintertux | open since 2 October | 14 cm by 14 October | running |
| Saas-Fee | 3 October, two lifts | 8 cm by 14 October | holds, but small |
| Stubai | 9 October | 3 cm | doable, without fresh snow |
| Kitzsteinhorn | 10 October | 3 cm | doable, without fresh snow |
| Titlis | 10 October | 13 cm | unlikely |
| Diavolezza | mid-October | 7 cm by 14 October | open question |
| Mölltal | 23 October | 16 cm by 14 October | realistic |
| Cervinia | 24 October | 7 cm by 14 October | realistic |
| Sölden | no date, World Cup 24/25 October | 12 cm by 14 October | World Cup realistic |
| Kaunertal | cancelled, no new date | 6 cm by 14 October | open question |
| Zermatt | winter season 1 November | 7 cm by 14 October | realistic |
Fresh snow in each case in the middle of the 51 runs, at 3,000 metres. “Before the date” means up to the day before; if the date is after 14 October, the calculation ends there. The assessment is ours, not the lift companies’.
Titlis: the snow comes, but just too late
The Titlis holds the paradox of this forecast. By 14 October it gets more snow than any of the thirteen resorts, 27 centimetres in the middle run. By 10 October, the announced start, it is only 13, and in not a single one of the 51 runs do 50 centimetres come together by then.
Its history shows why that matters more at the Titlis than elsewhere: in 2023 the lift company postponed the start twice, to 4 November, the latest ever. Marketing director Urs Egli said at the time that 80 to 100 centimetres of natural snow were still missing. In 2025 the start slipped by a week, to 11 October. In autumn the Titlis waits for the sky, and the sky delivers too little by 10 October. If the company postpones, the figures point to days rather than weeks: from 10 to 14 October the middle run adds another 14 centimetres, and the week from the 10th is the coldest of the month.
Stubai and Kitzsteinhorn: doable, but not with fresh snow
Up to 9 October the middle run gives Stubai 3 centimetres, and Kitzsteinhorn the same by the 10th. Cold enough to make snow, on the other hand, it is in every run, on average for 71 and 78 hours respectively. If either date holds, it will be on snow that is already there or is being made. Stubai itself says 9 October is “dependent on snow and weather conditions”.
Sölden: the race yes, the resort open
Sölden needs no fresh snow for the World Cup on 24 and 25 October. Three snow depots sit on the Rettenbach glacier, and piste manager Isidor Grüner said at the end of September that the reserves were sufficient. With colder weeks afterwards nothing speaks against it; FIS will decide at the snow control a few days beforehand. The ski area itself still names no opening day. Why a race is easier than a season is explained in our piece on the Sölden World Cup.
Zermatt: summer skiing shut, winter from 1 November
Zermatt, at 3,883 metres the highest ski area in Europe, stopped summer skiing for guests on 31 July. The lift company has not announced a restart since. There is a date all the same: according to Zermatt Bergbahnen the winter season starts on 1 November, with Sunnegga/Rothorn and Gornergrat following on 28 November. A good three weeks after the first cold front and with a second half of the month leaning cold, 1 November is realistic. Nothing points to an earlier start.
Saas-Fee, Kaunertal and the later dates
Saas-Fee opens tomorrow, but only the two upper drag lifts, Allalin 2 and 3. According to the lift company, the lower ones stay shut because of glacier conditions. Eight centimetres in the middle run change little, even though the wettest tenth of the runs brings 93 centimetres here, more than anywhere else.
Kaunertal wants to name a new date “as soon as snow and temperature conditions allow ski operations”. Temperature does from 10 October; snow, at 6 centimetres in the middle run, hardly.
Mölltal (23 October), Cervinia (24 October) and Diavolezza (“from mid-October”) lie beyond the end of the calculation. For them the direction is what counts: a cold week from the 10th, then leaning colder than normal. That speaks for the dates but does not guarantee them.
And the Swiss resorts in November?
For resorts without a glacier, what counts is the cold at 2,000 metres, where the early pistes are built. On 27 September, ten Swiss resorts at that altitude together had 95 hours cold enough to make snow over sixteen days. This morning the same calculation showed 307. The ensemble is more cautious: in the middle run it comes to 161 hours by 14 October, and in 9 of 51 runs not a single one.
For Davos (6 November), Verbier (7 November) and Glacier 3000 (8 November) that is good news, but not yet the all-clear. In the canton of Bern snowmaking is not allowed before 15 October anyway. More on this in our analysis of snowmaking and in the rules on when snow may be made.
What this means for you
- Check the lift company’s page before you travel. Autumn operation means few lifts: Saas-Fee opens with two, and the Titlis started with two in 2025.
- Keep an eye on the dates: our opening dates list every announced start, Open now shows what is running today, and Skiing in October collects the glaciers.
- We will recalculate as soon as the situation changes, and enter postponed dates as soon as the lift companies announce them.
Read on: What will winter 2026/27 be like? · World Cup in Sölden · Warm September, cold winter? · Snowfarming: how snow survives the summer
Sources and method
- Weather data: ECMWF ensemble (IFS 0.25°, 51 runs, to 14 October), GFS ensemble (NOAA, 0.5°, 31 runs, to early November) and the ERA5 reanalysis for 1991 to 2020, all via Open-Meteo, retrieved on 2 October 2026 at 12:11. Calculated for every resort at 3,000 metres, with coordinates on the glaciers. Script: scripts/oktober-prognose.mjs. The values change with every new model run, i.e. twice a day.
- Snow calculated ourselves: the models’ snowfall field applies to the mean terrain height of a cell of about 25 kilometres, which in the Alps is closer to 2,000 than to 3,000 metres. For 8 October it showed rain at the Titlis while it was below zero all day at 3,000 metres. We therefore calculate precipitation times snow fraction, with the snow fraction from the wet-bulb temperature at 3,000 metres (all snow up to 0 °C, all rain from 2 °C), and 1 mm of water to 0.7 cm of snow. What the mountain additionally pulls out of the clouds is not in the cell; the values are more likely too low than too high.
- Snowmaking hours: hours with a wet-bulb temperature of −2 °C or lower, calculated from temperature and humidity after Stull (2011).
- Main run “as in the app”: Open-Meteo, default model for the location, on 2 October 2026 at 12:00. The 2,000-metre values of the main run from the same morning and from 27 September come from scripts/beschneiung-pruefen.mjs, those of the ensemble from scripts/oktober-prognose.mjs, for the same ten locations.
- Dates and quotes from the lift companies: schnalstal.com (training operation), pitztaler-gletscher.at, hintertuxergletscher.at, saas-fee.ch, stubaier-gletscher.com, kitzsteinhorn.at, titlis.ch (timetable), corvatsch-diavolezza.ch, moelltaler-gletscher.at, cervinia.it, soelden.com, kaunertaler-gletscher.at and matterhornparadise.ch, all retrieved on 2 October 2026.
- Titlis in earlier years: nau.ch of 19 October 2023 and SRF of 20 October 2023 (postponement to 4 November, quote on natural snow), Bote der Urschweiz of 2 October 2025 (postponement to 11 October).
- Snow depots in Sölden: skinachrichten.de of 25 September 2026, quoting piste manager Isidor Grüner.
- Our assessments weigh fresh snow before the date, cold for snowmaking and what the lift companies say or have done before. What is in their depots, only they know.
