How will the winter of 2026/27 turn out?
The short answer
Nobody knows, and anyone who tells you otherwise in August is selling something. What can be said with confidence: the season will start on the glaciers in October, the large resorts follow in November, and the overwhelming majority open in December. Everything beyond that is a probability, not a forecast.
What is actually known today
El Niño is running strong. The weekly Niño 3.4 index stood at +2.1 °C on 20 July 2026. In its assessment of 9 July 2026, NOAA put the probability of the event persisting into spring 2027 at 97 per cent, and the chance of a very strong event between October and December 2026 at 81 per cent.
18 resorts have announced a starting date. The earliest is Engelberg-Titlis on 10 October 2026. All of the October openings have one thing in common: a glacier.
What that adds up to for the Alps: very little. The reasoning is in the next section, and at length in our article on the outlook.
Why an Alpine forecast in August is worth little
The signal that governs Alpine snow is the North Atlantic Oscillation, the pressure difference between Iceland and the Azores. A positive NAO drives moist Atlantic air across Europe; a negative one lets high pressure sit over the Alps and dry them out. The difference between a good and a poor winter is largely this.
And the NAO cannot be forecast months ahead. Not because meteorology is not trying, but because it is a chaotic quantity whose predictability runs out after roughly two weeks. Anyone offering you an Alpine winter in August is either forecasting something else or forecasting nothing.
The Pacific signal that can be seen months ahead, El Niño, reaches Europe only heavily diluted. Statistical links exist, strong El Niño winters show a slight tendency towards a cold late winter in central Europe, but they are weak and unreliable. What El Niño does do reliably is raise the global temperature level, which in an already record-warm period raises the probability that precipitation falls as rain rather than snow at low altitude.
That is the honest state of it: altitude is the one variable you can check in advance. Everything else is watching and waiting.
The four figures worth watching instead
| Figure | What it tells you | When it becomes meaningful | Where to check |
|---|---|---|---|
| NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) | The pressure difference between Iceland and the Azores. It decides whether the westerly flow pushes moist air into the Alps or high pressure dries them out. By far the most important factor for Alpine snow. | A few days to at most two weeks ahead. Months ahead, essentially not at all. | MeteoSwiss, NOAA Climate Prediction Center |
| Niño 3.4 index (ENSO) | Sea surface temperature in the tropical Pacific. Well established for North America and the tropics, but only weakly and indirectly relevant for Europe. | Known months ahead, but only a weak signal for the Alps. | NOAA, monthly diagnostic discussion |
| Snow depth at the SLF stations | What is actually lying, measured rather than advertised. The only figure in this table that is not a forecast. | From mid-November, and more meaningful with every passing day. | Our snow report |
| Announced opening dates | What the lift companies themselves are planning. A statement of intent rather than a promise, but the most concrete figure available in summer. | From August for the large resorts, from October for the rest. | Our opening dates page |
What you can usefully do now
Book by altitude
The one variable you can check in advance. Ranked by weighted altitude, with the calculation shown.
See the ranking →Check the dates
Announced starting dates and the usual season window for all 85 resorts.
See the dates →Watch the measurements
From mid-November the SLF readings say more than any seasonal forecast.
To the snow report →Update log
- Season dates for four resorts corrected directly by the lift companies: Stoos (now November to April), Meiringen-Hasliberg (19 December to 29 March), Belalp (12 December to 4 April), and Chäserrugg confirmed.
- Page created. NOAA assessment of 9 July 2026 carried over, opening dates for 13 resorts added.
This page is updated when the situation changes, not on a fixed schedule. The date at the top is the last time somebody actually checked, not the last time the site was rebuilt.